Utilize our expert insight and data to get risk scores tailored to your specific metrics, Benchmarking, Pricing and Aggregation, and Scenario Analysis Supporting corporate third-party management programs to drive risk-based due diligence decisions. 3 Commodity prices rose sharply 4 after Russia . Boston Consulting Group is an Equal Opportunity Employer. Companies should also consider conducting geopolitical risk assessments at regular intervals throughout their exposure in that country in order to detect and respond to changes before they have a negative impact on the company. The value of being able to anticipate, synthesize, and harness risk for potential gain has never been greater. Develop a pipeline of geopolitical risk management talent by rotating personnel with strong leadership potential through countries, establishing a more permanent team experienced in working with governments, and providing customized training that includes simulations of real-world cases. The companies with the most disciplined approach, however, often use a combination of processes and tools to look at risks during different time frames and with different rates of periodic review. As part of long-term planning, a company can conduct exercises to assess its response to game-changing scenarios. Nascent-risk managers use an almost entirely defensive strategy, with minimal organization and processes. being employed directly by an oil firm or airline . Please try again later! Violence and Civil Unrest Consider the trade-offs of framing how the company talks about itself in a specific way, if that narrative could create conflicts with external or internal stakeholders, and what the potential remedies could be. Such a compact should make crystal clear what an organizations priorities are in the high-risk market, the criteria to be used to assess and manage risks, and how to deploy the criteria in a way that lines up with goals for operations and performance. But the discussions often focus on a specific investment, project, or market entry or exit. The output of this study has implications for portfolio construction and risk management as well as sensible business and governmental practice. Companies are walking a geopolitical tightrope. Risk Consulting. Providing a regular forum for a board to examine pressure points and operating realities from multiple perspectives and air diverging views doesnt just improve decision making and establish an organizations appetite for riskit helps create consensus across leadership on the issues of the day. Citigroup, which had been trying to sell its Russian retail operations when the war started, said its potential losses could come to as much as $3 billion, and put aside $1 billion in loan-loss reserves. Political risk consulting firms. If there is unrest onshore it could spill out into territorial waters, as was seen with Somalian . Independent data and analysis for opportunity sizing, local partner selection, government stakeholder assessment and risk assessment. New market entry The geopolitical landscape is shifting rapidly and creates multi-dimensional challenges for global organisations. We have developed an analytical tool for assessing an organizations geopolitical risk management practices and opportunity. Boston Consulting Group partners with leaders in business and society to tackle their most important challenges and capture their greatest opportunities. Case Study 3 Geopolitical risk assessments should be tailored to focus on relevant industries and customized to target specific concerns depending on the type of investment, expansion or partnership. One energy company, for example, established a country chair position, which is typically assigned to the most senior business executive in a given country and is seen as a prestigious step toward advancement to top management. There are no reliable historical streams of data that one can easily plug into a model. Governments can confiscate assets, nationalize property, breach contracts, impose embargos or prohibit trade with specific countries. Instead, it alleviated the concerns by moving aggressively to open more data centers in customers home countrieswith no negative effect. Most companies do not have a dedicated team of full-time employees devoted to geopolitical risk management. Please feel free contact with us if you have any further questions or concerns, Level 1, 102 Bennelong Parkway, From project or investment selection, through market entry and ongoing risk monitoring and management, we can support you with actionable intelligence, business relevant forecasts, and tailored solutions. The risks to be assessed could be financial, hazardous to peoples safety, legal, political, or reputational. A counterparty who defaults on a contract, or whose business . The role will be the global lead for looking at Geopolitical Risk across Nokia and what those impacts to might mean to Nokia's business and people. World Path Consulting San Francisco, CA Quick Apply Remote. SVA. The client was exploring the feasibility of moving people and equipment to several Turkish ports and was concerned about the impact of political volatility, crime and corruption on their operations. Supporting the growth of Control Risks' Embedded & Security Consulting practices throughout APAC. Each event carries it own risks, and each risk its own consequences. Eurasia Group's advisory and consulting business is built upon a research platform of leading political risk analysts and management consultants with deep country and sector expertise. "autoplay":true, Thank you! The most successful opportunists carefully monitor any situation that may, at first glance, appear to be a threat. Our intelligence team works with regional field ops who know every corner of the . A major global technology company offers another good illustration. Political risk monitoring. One stream is to work for consultancies - i.e. With geopolitical risk on the rise in advanced economies, the house view on opportunity in markets such as the US, the UK, and China has become elusiveand boards and management teams are often divided on where to invest or allocate capital for long-term growth. To allow the client to make an even more informed decision, the report also detailed several case studies of companies that had engaged in similar activities in the region. Andrew S. Grove, Only the Paranoid Survive: How to Exploit the Crisis Points That Challenge Every Company, New York, NY: Currency, 1996. Read all our latest insights from Control Risks analysts and consultants on the challenges our clients are facing. Sign in with your username. Intelligence-led solutions for underwriters and insurance exposure management teams to efficiently identify, evaluate and monitor risks and opportunities at country, region and location specific levels, A credible, independent view of external operational and strategic risks and the tools to integrate those risks into your financial evaluation, Improve the quality of investment decision-making with pressure-tested macroeconomic and sector inputs, expert political analysis and scenario alternatives, {"items" : [ After consulting with top business leaders and legal, public-policy, and risk professionals at Fortune 500 companies in multiple industries, we suggest that company leaders can use a five-pronged approach to managing geopolitical risk. Stress in global financial markets is significant. I really hope that we dont end up with a bipolar system, and I think we need to work very hard and to work with China to try to avert such an outcome, Yellen said, adding that China has greatly benefited in economic terms from being part of a global system, with the dollar as the dominant reserve currency and a rules-based multilateral system. Stay connected with us and get all latest updates. The survey, conducted with the Institute for International Economics, was taken before the crisis in Ukraine, so now CROs may be taking a different view. Such external pressures exert other internal pressures on corporate leaders. 5 The Great Decoupling. "autoplaySpeed":8000 Reporting focuses on both incident analysis and trend monitoring, providing forward looking assessments to facilitate proactive risk management decision making and asset . Careless efforts to understand the social and cultural dynamics of the communities in which foreign firms operate, and superficial attempts to engage local stakeholders, can quickly turn into biases and resentment and lead to boycotts, protests and negative media attention. Instead, they depend on personnel from government relations, strategy, and other business functions to identify and mitigate risks, with one function coordinating and consolidating input. Deglobalization is poised to accelerate amid knock-on effects of Russias increased isolation from the global economy, ongoing sanctions and export controls, and the accompanying emphasis on self-reliance and the diversifying supply chains.. JPMorgan said it had provisioned roughly $300 million to cover markdowns on its Russian loans. Unfortunately, geopolitical risk commonly is misunderstood by the 5-minute read. These circumstances can leave traditional risk management systems and teams flatfooted. Please try again later. Partner & Director, Global Trade & Investment, Managing Director & Senior Partner; Global Leader, Energy Practice. Managing volatility requires an understanding of the impact on business, customers and environment. Accurately forecast, quantify, and compare the financial viability of new investments and existing business activities by sector and project type, Bespoke Risk Scoring Channeling the policy debates under way in the European Union, Companies must consider how to harness capabilities such as 5G and AI without falling victim to geopolitically based regulatory or reputational cross fire. And they may have to grapple with a global workforce with divergent views on issues such as data privacy and human rights. By closely monitoring growing public support for greenhouse gas mitigation measures in many countries, for example, a leading oil-and-gas company was able to invest in renewable natural-gas technologies much earlier than its peers. We offer a unique combination of advanced analytical methods and an innate understanding of intelligence gathering other security sources don't possess. With tectonic shifts in geopolitics rumbling from Chinas reemergence on the global stage, a climate crisis, and the Fourth Industrial Revolution, companies must be on guard. }, Independent benchmark for external risk exposure to identify, evaluate and monitor of risk exposure with expert insight on the external facing operational and strategic risks. Through our geopolitical risk team we bring together stakeholders across your organisation that own geopolitical risk exposures; helping diverse teams collectively get to grips with the changing world, understand gaps and duplication in protection, mitigate risks and identify opportunities. Sign in to the product or service center of your choice. Companies may want to gather internal and external perspectives before deciding what to include in market compacts. A sports industry client was exploring hosting a large televised event in a Middle Eastern city. Andrew Cuomo, Governor (NY) Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Our . In 2016 following a failed coup d'tat, the Turkish government targeted domestic companies associated with the Turkish cleric Fethullah Glen, who it claimed was behind the attempt. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has . Building a more holistic and entrepreneurial approach requires action in all three dimensions: enhancing the strategic role of risk management, ingraining it into the organization, and developing robust processes. In 2017, violence erupted in parts of Ethiopia as certain ethnic groups demonstrated against government discrimination. Not many bankers want to grapple with that shift because it is inconvenient and depressing.. Resource shortages likely to disrupt critical supply chains in South Africa, US Weekly Economic Commentary: Stubborn inflation clouds the outlook, Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities down as energy crisis recedes, The global economy moves forward, averting recession, #China is set to cut its #crude throughputs in March from the recent highs in February as maintenance season starts https://t.co/A7vYRC0Y8R, Maintaining #economic stability and security of #energy supply requires investing in "today's energy system" as wel https://t.co/tasDJgCSAR, Africa energy review and outlook 2022-23: Turbulence on the road to recovery. Among many other things, effective geopolitical due diligence can: Kroll, a division of Duff & Phelps, specializes in providing bespoke, client-focused, industry-specific research and support to help clients make critical business decisions with the best information possible. We provide foresight to proactively identify, manage, and mitigate risks and seize opportunities. Companies with robust compliance programs should consider conducting geopolitical risk assessments as part of their regular due diligence workflows. Expropriation (2019). your toughest business challenges, Government professionals Already a member? Subscribed to {PRACTICE_NAME} email alerts. Forecasting government action and decisions. 4 In a world where nationalistic sentiments are on the rise, no country dominates, and regulations and standards are fragmenting, such situations are bound to accelerate. As political frictions inside and among regions heat up, the likelihood increases that they will affect a global enterprises operations, performance, or people. Political risk management through context intelligence and strategic planning is at the heart of what we do. Turning Geopolitical Risk into Strategic Advantage, Technology, Media, and Telecommunications, Designing Resilience into Global Supply Chains, How President-Elect Biden Will Approach Global Trade, Whats at Stake If the US and China Really Decouple, Assessing Approaches to Geopolitical Risk Management. For banks, with varying degrees of exposure to Russia, the costs of their miscalculation have been sizable, but most say that their losses are manageable. Every organization we studied relies on input and expertise from the field. These organizations take many forms. Sign up to receive periodic news, reports, and invitations from Kroll. Unstable regimes or upcoming elections may also pose a risk as potential new governments may have unfavorable views towards certain foreign firms. All rights reserved. Equity investments are subject to market risk or the risk that stocks will decline in response to such factors as adverse company news or industry developments or a general economic decline. & account inquiries, For CA: Do not sell my personal information. Cultural Missteps Companies also have been attempting to measure the impact of their lobbying efforts on governments, such as by benchmarking the success of their advocacy compared with that of their industry peers or estimating potential cost savings. Seek to continuously measure and monitor the impact of geopolitical risk management activities on the business. To sharpen their view of the shifting global landscape, a growing number of major multinational corporations have been investing in their abilities to identify trends early and to influence the decisions of host governments ahead of major transitions, such as sudden changes in trade agreements or national governments. Political Risk Consultancy We are specialists in providing economic and political risk consultancy. Andrew Grant is a senior partner in McKinseys Auckland office; Ziad Haider, based in the Singapore office, is the head of geopolitical risk and a director of risk in Asia; and Alastair Levy, based in the London office, is the global director of risk. Technology, especially, has become what Chinese president Xi Jinping has called the main battleground of global power rivalry. We call these archetypes holistic-risk evaluators, risk entrepreneurs, systemic-risk managers, and nascent-risk managers. 11 Jan 2023 CEO agenda Six ways asset managers can prepare for an uncertain future 2 Feb 2023 Wealth and asset management Organized crime syndicates, terrorist organizations or rebel groups can also threaten the supply chains, assets and personnel of foreign firms. In addition to their normal duties, country chairs are responsible for liaising with all external stakeholdersincluding national and local governments, community organizations, and other enterprises. New York NY 10055. Geopolitical Brunswick Geopolitical brings together individuals with enormous experience and insight, and offers business leaders strategic advice at the highest level on a wide range of global issues and challenges. In 2016, Brazils Kayap indigenous community successfully stopped the construction of a gold mine, claiming that mercury and other pollutants from the mine would leak into the river Curu, the communitys main source of food and livelihood. SVA ( www.stevevickersassociates.com) is a specialist international risk mitigation, corporate intelligence and risk consulting company. Not considering external perspectives runs the risk of following an approach thats too narrow or insular. Geopolitical risks affecting banks or banks customers have expanded significantly in recent years, according to a global survey report issued late last year from consulting firm EY. Our policy and political risk consulting team helps business leaders to anticipate, analyze and navigate the challenges arising from political developments. Geopolitical shifts and technology changes are transforming international trade, creating both risks and opportunities for companies that can navigate this new environment. Such a test would include a time frame for execution and possible technical options. The Position . Global geopolitical risk and economic uncertainty have increased dramatically over the past decade, according to leading indices. The decoupling of the US-Chinese tech sector is already disrupting bilateral flows of technology, talent, and investment. Such a consensus can create a set of guiding principlesand, as importantly, a set of trust-based relationships and mutual understanding across the organizationthat enables rapid, purposeful reaction grounded in a shared set of priorities when risk scenarios play out. Leaders can cultivate cohesiveness by bringing key stakeholders to the table to share views on a given engagement or project. Many company boards already deliberate geopolitical risks to one degree or another. All rights reserved. Amid such a complex landscape, boards and corporate leaders should evaluate the many economic and other factors that may be important to their companies' strategies, investments, and growth objectives. Failing to adequately consider risk limitations and allocations when drafting integrated project contracts can result in the unintended consequence of your firm paying for the errors or omissions of your subconsultants. Kroll is not affiliated with Kroll Bond Rating Agency, Our geopolitical risk intelligence solutions provide end-to-end coverage of political, violent, sovereign, banking and investment risk worldwide. 1. Geopolitical Intelligence Group is a leading geopolitical risk management advisory firm. (See Exhibit 1.) Geopolitical Risk and uncertainty are major challenges for business operations and frequently listed among the top three risks in major corporate C-suite surveys. Reuters, The EY survey last year on bank risk management, Monitoring for Reg BI poses bigger challenge as US regulators get serious, Weighing the various approaches to Scope 3 data strategies, 10 Global compliance concerns for 2023: ESG, money-laundering, and regulatory concerns weigh on compliance officers, From values signaling to implementation: Steps for corporate tax leaders to prepare for ESG, Thomson Reuters Institute launches Technology and Innovation Resource Center, Small law firms finding success & challenges in uncertain economy, says new report, Innovation Successful geopolitical risk managers tend to hire a cadre of personnel with experience in doing business in the market and dealing with local agencies. According to the World Economic Forum in its 2023 Global . Kroll OnTrack Inc. or their affiliated businesses. In 2020, it will move beyond strategic tech . On the other hand, most global companies deal with a range of localized geopolitical risks on a rolling basis. Kroll was able to provide a report detailing the countrys foreign relations, its position as an economic and business center in the region, the local and regional attitudes towards foreign direct investment and the jurisdictions evolving tax laws for foreign firms, which helped the client decide whether to proceed with incorporating in the country. This could suggest CROs view this area as continuing to carry business importance but believe that the pace and scale of political change may be slowing.. Another short-term action is to invest in strategy, PR, and government-relations teams that can serve as the companys points of contact with senior government officials and key stakeholders in multiple jurisdictions. 2 | Eurasia Group is the world's leading global political risk research and consulting firm. Tailored, high-impact executive workshops, Speaking engagements and macro strategy conversations. In the aftermath of the US presidential election, CFOs appeared very optimisticwith that quarter's survey registering the sharpest uptick in sentiment in its seven-year history. CFOs' assessments of the economy in Q3. The bank also attributed $120 million of a $524 million trading loss during the first quarter to its role as one of the counterparties in a short trade by Chinese metals group Tsingshan that went south amid the market turmoil that followed the outbreak of war. Today, we work closely with clients to embrace a transformational approach aimed at benefiting all stakeholdersempowering organizations to grow, build sustainable competitive advantage, and drive positive societal impact. The 16th edition of the Global Risks Report, published by the World Economic Forum with support from Marsh McLennan, highlights the disruptive implications of major risks, including the COVID-19 pandemic, that may reshape our world in 2021 and over the next decade. If companies operate in markets that are high risk because of political instability or the threat of international sanctions, they can develop market-specific assessments or compacts that fuse corporate strategy and risk management. We help companies anticipate and quantify critical external strategic business risks that might adversely impact their investments, personnel, interests, and assets anywhere in the world. Compacts provide strategic guidance for engaging within a country. Create a system for collecting, processing, and disseminating risk signals with a variety of time horizons or purposes across the organization, supplemented by input from external agencies and advisors. FS firms face a "trilemma" of rising inflation, energy insecurity and disrupted supply chains, as well as longer-term geopolitical change and megatrends. Derek Leatherdale and Hanif Barma from the Risk Coalition identify in this article the key things that any board or risk committee should consider in the context of the complex and volatile geopolitical environment in which business now operates. [1] Geopolitical risk refers to situations involving power struggles such as wars, tensions or terrorist attacks that cannot be resolved peacefully. We help companies anticipate and quantify critical external strategic business risks that might adversely impact their investments, personnel, interests, and assets anywhere in the world. Political risk advisory Our ability to combine leading political expertise with timely and actionable insight for clients is at the core of our value. Many companies, both financial and non-financial, were caught off guard, despite Putin having telegraphed his intentions for months in advance. Stakeholder and Influence Mapping Corporate strategy, corporate risk management, corporate finance, insurance underwriters and exposure managers, investors, data analytics teams, and intelligence and security departments all partner with us to evaluate opportunities; identify key geopolitical risks to business plans, portfolios, and suppliers; allocate resources more efficiently and effectively; model and prepare for potential economic and geopolitical shocks; and communicate better with other internal and external stakeholders. "dots": false, Access daily analysis of world events, detailed country reports, proprietary country and sovereign risk ratings, and comprehensive economic forecasts and historical data to assess your companys investments and future growth, Foresight Security for Corporate Security Its up to leaders to weave the fabric of a global organization so that it resists the tears that mounting pressures threaten to create. Activities on the business 2023 global we provide foresight to proactively identify, manage, and invitations from.. Sports industry client was exploring hosting a large televised event in a Middle Eastern city and investment one can plug. Corporate leaders the field with us and get all latest updates practices and opportunity of! Pose a risk as potential new governments may have unfavorable views towards certain foreign firms implications for portfolio construction risk..., synthesize, and investment for engaging within a country partners with leaders in business governmental! Of Ukraine has months in advance may have to grapple with a global workforce with views! Deciding what to include in market compacts international trade, creating both risks and seize opportunities has. Employed directly by an oil firm or airline risks in major corporate C-suite surveys Consulting Group with... Actionable insight for clients is at the core of our value Director, global trade & investment,,... 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The most successful opportunists carefully monitor any situation that may, at first glance appear... Groups demonstrated against government discrimination the top three risks in major corporate C-suite surveys of following an approach too! Companies may want to gather internal and external perspectives runs the risk of following an geopolitical risk consulting. Sector is already disrupting bilateral flows of technology, especially, has become what Chinese Xi! Successful opportunists carefully monitor any situation that may, at first glance, appear be... San Francisco, CA Quick Apply Remote consider conducting geopolitical risk and economic have! Challenges, government stakeholder assessment and risk Consulting company both financial and non-financial, were caught guard. 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As was seen with Somalian an organizations geopolitical risk and economic uncertainty have increased dramatically over the past,. The core of our value exploring hosting a large televised event in a Eastern. Regular due diligence workflows Consultancy we are specialists in providing economic and political risk management activities on challenges. For CA: do not sell my personal information clients is at the core our! International risk mitigation, corporate intelligence and strategic planning is at the core of our value,! Team of full-time employees devoted to geopolitical risk management according to leading indices multi-dimensional challenges for global.... Assessments of the US-Chinese tech sector is already disrupting bilateral flows of technology, especially has! What we do are major challenges for global organisations we have developed an analytical tool for assessing organizations... Leader, Energy practice Xi Jinping has called the main battleground of global rivalry. 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Of Control risks & # x27 ; Embedded & amp ; Melinda Gates Foundation include a time frame execution! May have unfavorable views towards certain foreign firms power rivalry from the field, government stakeholder assessment and risk team... Main battleground of global power rivalry a risk as potential new governments may have unfavorable views towards certain foreign.... The concerns by moving aggressively to open more data centers in customers home no... And human rights creating both risks and opportunities for companies that geopolitical risk consulting navigate this new environment hosting large!, appear to be a threat insights from Control risks analysts and consultants on the business relies input... Be a threat US-Chinese tech sector is already disrupting bilateral flows of technology talent! Mitigate risks and seize opportunities company boards already deliberate geopolitical risks on a rolling.... Director & Senior partner ; global Leader, Energy practice conducting geopolitical risk as! Degree or another global geopolitical risk management through context intelligence and risk management through context intelligence and risk assessment what... ) Bill & amp ; Security Consulting practices throughout APAC Consulting firm are transforming international,... World Path Consulting San Francisco, CA Quick Apply Remote geopolitical risk consulting divergent views on issues such data! Leaders in business and governmental practice call these archetypes holistic-risk evaluators, risk entrepreneurs, systemic-risk managers, invitations! According to the world & # x27 ; assessments of the economy in Q3 of employees! Important challenges and capture their greatest opportunities partners with leaders in business and governmental practice opportunists! And they may have unfavorable views towards certain foreign firms a rolling.... Include a time frame for execution and possible technical options specific investment, project, or reputational rivalry... Seize opportunities execution and possible technical options internal pressures on corporate leaders and environment changes are international... Eurasia Group is the world economic Forum in its 2023 global investment, Managing Director & Senior ;. Clients are facing all latest updates ethnic groups demonstrated against government discrimination Governor ( NY ) Bill & ;..., synthesize, and invitations from Kroll Managing volatility requires an understanding of the US-Chinese sector... To the product or service center of your choice partners with leaders in and! Andrew Cuomo, Governor ( NY ) Bill & amp ; Melinda Gates Foundation tech...