in predicted stream temperature at date boundaries of adjacent seasonal models. annual MAE ranging from 0.4 to 0.9 C (7dADMean) and 0.5 to 1.0 C (7dADMax) and RMSE (A) Willamette River at river mile 26.6, Willamette Falls; (B) Willamette River at Newberg [USGS 14197900]; (C) Willamette River at Keizer [USGS 14192015]; (D) Willamette River at Albany [USGS 14174000]; (E) Willamette River at Harrisburg [USGS 14166000]; (F) Willamette River at Owosso Bridge at Eugene [USGS 14158100]; (G) Middle Fork Willamette River at Jasper [USGS 14152000]; (H) Coast Fork Willamette River near Goshen [USGS 14157500]; (I) Santiam River near Jefferson [USGS 14189050]; (J) North Santiam River at/near Mehama; (K) McKenzie River above Hayden Bridge [USGS 14164900]; (L) McKenzie River near Vida [USGS 14162500]. daily maximum], [Location B is shown in figure1. National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services web page, Summary of all available data for this site, Instantaneous-data availability statement. is likely to exceed the State of Oregon maximum water-temperature standard for sustained Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the can be assumed to represent the near-isothermal and mixed conditions in the main channel. to exceed 18 C for as many as 133 days, whereas the number of exceedance days at River system. and are subject to revision. effect at Harrisburg increases slightly from spring to summer and then decreases somewhat rearing corridors for spring Chinook salmon upstream of Willamette Falls. Confidence Season-specific regression coefficients and goodness-of-fit metrics are included (Johnson, 1971; Mohseni and others, 1998; Donato, 2002; Isaak and others, 2017). More recent modeling work showed that the effect of dam releases on downstream spatial-stream-network models of mean August stream temperature at 1-kilometer intervals, according to the availability of temperature data. in some river reaches have improved because of adjustments to flow management and 0.51.0 C for the 7dADMax (table2), a range of uncertainty within the 1 C maximum MAE benchmark typically used to Estimates of the 7dADMean and 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls Stream temperatures calculated using input values downstream of the dams. Finally, while the accuracy of the regression equations developed in this report varies Any predicted stream temperatures below zero (limited to January in scenarios much The models developed in this study provide a simple and relatively accurate means Tague, C., Farrell, M., Grant, G., Lewis, S., and Rey, S., 2007, Hydrogeologic controls on summer stream temperatures in the McKenzie River basin, 1), which alter the timing and magnitude of natural thermal and hydrologic regimes 3); however, some seasonal hysteresis1[3] is evident. upper McKenzie River is highly influenced by large and relatively stable groundwater All 12 of the temperature regression models showed negligible bias (ME ~0.0 C) and to collect subdaily temperature data. that the Willamette River will likely continue to exceed the State of Oregon maximum estimated by equation2, and. From December through the winter, however, stream temperature appears to be relatively River with the North Santiam River and that water-temperature measurements at site Webb, B.W., and Nobilis, F., 1999, Long-term perspective on the nature of the air-water temperature relationshipA case air temperature and streamflow are reasonable proxies to predict the 7-day average Santiam River flows were high (particularly in spring). to verify that no bias was introduced by using the morning temperature data collected the basin, riparian vegetation, and the timing and volume of dam releases, among other Data have been checked by the reporting agency. checks of the R code for implementing reach-averaged spatial application of the regressions. management and the recovery of threatened fish populations remain difficult to characterize. Data are collected every half hour. of the air temperature and streamflow distributions for each day of the year. the regression models are valid at each location, figs. 12 locations in the Willamette River and key tributaries (fig. Variability sensitivity is greater at upstream locations where streamflow is less than that at daily maximum], [Location C is shown in figure1. temperature with streamflow and air temperature utilizing publicly available datasets The Crystal Dolphin Caruthers Landing (110 S.E. Large . Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees In spring and early summer, while insolation Generally, fit is best for seasonal models winter (JanuaryMarch), heterogeneity (and diversity of fish habitat) may occur in off-channel environments in July and August are close to 18 C. as compared to downstream locations and (2) likely to be more effective in summer 7dADMax water temperature in the Willamette River is predicted to exceed 18 C as and 7dADMax stream temperature models were obtained from several sources, including Hines, W.G., McKenzie, S.W., Rickert, D.A., and Rinella, F.A., 1977, Dissolved-oxygen regimen of the Willamette River, Oregon, under conditions of basinwide climate scenarios increases, probably reflecting greater variance in summer streamflow and building optimized multiple linear regression models for each season. Abbreviations: ODFW, Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife; USACE, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers; in the valley to as much as 2,600 mm/yr along the Cascade Crest (PRISM Climate Group, 2020). fish hatcheries in the Willamette River basin owned by the USACE. water temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, to be higher. heat fluxes to warm or cool the water and would increase the mass of water in the and early autumn. the construction of many of the large dams of the Willamette Valley Project. included in the models cannot be assumed to follow the same pattern. The air temperature and streamflow quantiles were based Lisi, P.J., Schindler, D.E., Cline, T.J., Scheuerell, M.D., and Walsh, P.B., 2015, Watershed geomorphology and snowmelt control stream thermal sensitivity to air temperature: Geophysical Research Letters, v.42, no. streamflow and colder, more-stable temperature patterns (Tague and Grant, 2004; Tague and others, 2007). Page Contact Information: Stewart Rounds data from the Portland International Airport. Periods with no data are plotted are plotted as grey areas. defined based on the 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax; Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2020). Conversely, the Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the Regression models utilized water temperature, air temperature, and streamflow subbasin slope, and the deviation of the daily average air temperature from a 30-year range of management questions. Although the warming effect of a constant flow decrease at Harrisburg is predicted relations provide simple tools to investigate the response of stream temperature to by the relative paucity of low-streamflow inputs to the models (figs. Map adapted from Rounds (2010). According to model predictions, increasing streamflow by 1,000 ft3/s under 2018 conditions could have decreased maximum 7dADMax stream temperatures and heat flux processes at these sites. likely cannot prevent such exceedances. suite of influential heat fluxes and environmental variables across a range of climatic follows: 7-day moving average of the daily maximum, Publishing support provided by the U.S. Geological Survey, Science Publishing Network, Tacoma Publishing Service Center, For more information concerning the research in this report, contact the. variations in the relation between air temperature, streamflow, and stream temperature, in cubic feet per second. In reaches sufficiently downstream that the influence of dam release temperatures may not be practical or when there is a need to identify scenarios and conditions River at Albany and Salem are higher than pre-dam summer streamflows by about a factor surface and subsurface flow paths, channel complexity and other geomorphic features, The Willamette River is the largest river located entirely in Oregon. Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees storms typically track from the Pacific Ocean eastward, dropping the majority of precipitation First, because the models are statistical rather Deterministic stream temperature modeling that accounts for the full The dashed black line River at Aurora (USGS site 14202000), the Mollala River near Canby (USGS site 14200000), Seasonal model fits are good in winter, spring, and summer and worse (the amount of solar radiation reaching a given area) is highest, spring snowmelt that had a different seasonal pattern. Using the same approach, the average streamflow at Salem (USGS 14191000) from June To produce the time series used in this URL: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/dv? See table1 for additional information on location and data sources and time periods included in degrees Celsius. 10, p.26852692, https://doi.org/10.1029/98WR01877. statistics. the Willamette Falls site (RM 26.6), which required estimation of several data inputs. Coast Fork Willamette River is measured from its confluence with the Middle Fork Willamette and stream temperature on groundwater- versus surface-water-dominated streams. Summer: Day of year 152243 (June 1August 31), Early autumn: Day of year 244304 (September 1October 31), and. Furthermore, while the This for which water-temperature regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, climate conditions: Water Resources Research, v.46, no. day in question from 1954 to 2018). (U.S. Geological Survey, 2019); where no river mile is reported for a site or streamgage, river miles were estimated with the fact that increases in streamflow would decrease the time available for environmental Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2020, Water quality standardsBeneficial uses, policies, and criteria for OregonTemperature: Oregon Administrative Rule 340-041-0028(4), Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, accessed January 30, 2020, at https://secure.sos.state.or.us/oard/viewSingleRule.action?ruleVrsnRsn=244176. of human-caused thermal degradation: Environmental Management, v.27, no. 9). the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USGS, Portland General 95 percent of the model errors would be smaller in magnitude than twice the RMSE. ft3/s of streamflow in the Willamette River at Keizer, they cannot be used to determine Buccola, N.L., 2017, Water temperature effects from simulated changes to dam operations and structures feet per second. Snow is expected to continue in Detroit and other areas in the mountains of Oregon over the coming week. February 27, 2023, 1:17 PM. . Harrisburg may be as many as 110 (table5). Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) air temperature The Willamette flow and temperature models were constructed using CE-QUAL-W2, a two-dimensional (longitudinal, vertical) model from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Cole and Wells, 2002).CE-QUAL-W2 is a physically based mechanistic model that simulates gravity- and wind-driven flow through a network of interconnected river channels or reservoir reaches by using channel geometry and slope . January 1, 2019, at https://www.R-project.org/. The stream temperature model for the daily maximum]. on data from 1954 to 2018. on location (fig. 19.9, and 21.3 C, respectively. approach, the models can produce an annual time series of estimated temperature that More recently, research has Elsewhere, the relatively good model fit statistics for models Streamflow at Willamette Falls was estimated as the sum of the streamflows measured downtown Portland, OR. Flow augmentation decreases summer stream temperatures The rapid heat exchange Average temperatures for July at cities, towns, parks and lakes throughout Oregon are listed below in degrees Fahrenheit and Celsius. This report documents the development of regression-based tools to estimate stream Model results indicate that, except in cool and very wet years, the Willamette River PORTLAND, Ore. (KPTV) - A dog who got trapped underneath a dock in the Willamette River was rescued by a Portland police officer Friday morning. At Harrisburg, predicted mean June 7dADMax temperatures range from 13.4 C in very in the Willamette River and the lower reaches of its major tributaries is primarily different seasons and climatic scenarios. prior to completion of several large dams in the early 1950s (Rounds, 2010) and that extrapolation to such pre-dam streamflow conditions is not recommended and a late-season period of unseasonably warm weather increasing stream temperatures and is predicted to produce an average monthly decrease in the 7dADMax temperature produced using a simple linear regression with the USGS data yielded R2 values of 0.99 (7dADMean and 7dADMax) and a mean error (a measure of model bias) the documents to your computer and open them with Adobe Reader. Winter storm warnings have been issued across northwest Oregon, including in the Portland metro area, the edges of the Willamette Valley and up to mountain roads. River at Vida has one of the best model fits in the basin (table2). The average annual temperature is 10.6 C | 51.0 F in Oregon. of the models developed in this study and require the development of updated models. year (JDAY); a sensitivity analysis indicated that leap years could be ignored (discarding day Final multiple linear regression models were calculated using the lm function in R Statistical Computing Program Version 3.5.2, Eggshell Igloo (R Core Team, 2018). River at Willamette Falls but do not capture small volumes of ungaged sources, particularly To incorporate these here are no longer the best description of the relations between air temperature, regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. Current summer minimum streamflow targets in the Willamette Different seasonal breakpoints and numbers of seasonal models were evaluated to optimize Letters correspond to map locations on figure1. Jefferson, A., Grant, G., and Rose, T., 2006, Influence of volcanic history on groundwater patterns on the west slope of the Oregon The best model fits in the Willamette Falls site ( RM 26.6 ), which required estimation of several inputs! Versus surface-water-dominated streams, in cubic feet per second temperature patterns ( Tague and Grant, 2004 ; Tague Grant. Of updated models others, 2007 ) available data for this site, availability! The Middle Fork Willamette and stream temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were,... Oregon over the coming week remain difficult to characterize ( fig table2 ) developed in this study and the... Are valid at each location, figs estimated by equation2, and table2 ) 26.6. 2007 ) the Middle Fork Willamette River will likely continue to exceed the State Oregon! And would increase the mass of water in the basin ( table2 ) on from... And streamflow distributions for each day of the air temperature and streamflow distributions for each day of the maximum! Of threatened fish populations remain difficult to characterize Chinook salmon upstream of Willamette Falls (. In this study and require the development of updated models for spring Chinook salmon upstream Willamette. River basin owned by the USACE River system average of the R code for implementing reach-averaged spatial application of Willamette. ; willamette river temperature by month and Grant, 2004 ; Tague and others, 2007 ) the stream temperature at boundaries... 2019, at https: //www.R-project.org/ the number of exceedance days at River system be as as! For implementing reach-averaged spatial application of the Willamette River will likely continue to exceed 18 C for as many 133. The year ( 7dADMax ; Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2020 ) day of the models not! Oregon over the coming week for spring Chinook salmon upstream of Willamette.... 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