100% remote. Before the election, Democrats held 36 of the open seats up for election, Republicans held 27, and five were newly created seats. This data can be used as an indicator of expected competitive districts in the 2022 elections. This chart lists each district that the DCCC announced it would target in 2022. The presidents party often loses ground in midterms, but the magnitude of those losses varies greatly depending on the national political environment and the seats held by each party prior to the election. In Abramowitz's model, he sets that at 222 Democratic House seats (out of 435) and 14 Senate seats (out of 34 up in 2022). The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither party currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. Forecasts based on this range of generic ballot results are displayed in Table 3. The Current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. Colorado. Broken down by the winner's party, the average MOV was 27.7 percentage points for Democrats and 30.2 percentage points for Republicans. Click here to learn more about how Ballotpedia defines and calculates competitiveness figures. [59][60], On April 26, 2021, the U.S. Census Bureau released its post-2020 census apportionment counts. Forty-four (44) states adopted congressional district maps. A federal district court, in striking down the state's congressional redistricting plan, postponed the deadline for candidates qualifying by petition in lieu of paying the filing fee from June 22, 2022, to July 8, 2022. The closest U.S. House race in 2022 was in Colorado's 3rd Congressional District, where Lauren Boebert (R) defeated Adam Frisch (D) by a margin of 0.17%, or 546 votes out of more than 300,000 cast. The current breakdown of the House (allocating vacant seats to the party that last won them) is 222 Democrats and 213 Republicans. Check out our, There is no secret sauce. Updated September 23, 2022 10:43 am. Based on the Senate results, a one-point increase or decrease in the generic ballot margin for the presidents party would be expected to produce a swing of about 0.2 seats and every additional seat defended by the presidents party would be expected to produce a net loss of more than 0.8 seats. In the 2014 primary for Virginia's 7th Congressional District, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R), ranked behind only then-Speaker John Boehner (R) in Republican House leadership, was defeated by economics professor Dave Brat (R). The section below provides generic congressional polling averages over time from RealClearPolitics. The results in Table 2 show that the generic ballot and the number of seats defended by the presidents party have strong and statistically significant effects in both House and Senate elections. Democrats currently hold an extraordinarily narrow 220-211 seat majority in the House of Representatives with four . The most vulnerable GOP incumbent in the country might be Rep. Mike Garcia, whose district north of Los Angeles voted for President Joe Biden by 13 points. The larger the presidential partys deficit on the generic ballot and the more seats it is defending, the more seats it tends to lose. 51 +1. The generic ballot provides a measure of the national political environment at the time of the midterm election while the number of seats defended by the presidents party provides a measure of exposure to risk. This article is reprinted from Sabato's Crystal Ball. One district was vacant because the incumbent passed away.[3]. Senate Projection. Denotes the party that had more seats in the U.S. House following the election. These maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters, as well as some consensus projections. Ballotpedia tracked 39 districts (8.5%) as battleground races. The "who will control the House of Representatives" market will pay out $100 for a $350 bet. * This is FiveThirtyEights best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous experience and endorsements. Ballotpedia features 395,397 encyclopedic articles written and curated by our professional staff of editors, writers, and researchers. Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R), in response to a federal court order, directed that the primary for state legislative offices be held on August 2, 2022. Hover over or click a district to see the presidential vote counts. Elections to the U.S. House were held on November 8, 2022. You can tune in here; if you cannot make it, we will KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We now rate 218 House seats -- the magic number for winning a majority -- as at least Leans Republican in our House ratings. The Supreme Court of Pennsylvania fixed March 28, 2022, as the filing deadline for General Assembly candidates. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. The Supreme Court of North Carolina ordered the postponement of the statewide primary, originally scheduled for March 8, 2022, to May 17, 2022. Ballotpedia defines wave elections as the 20 percent of elections where the president's party lost the most seats during the last 100 years (50 election cycles). 2022 Review: How Republicans Lost Despite Winning the Popular Vote There were several reasons Republicans struggled to translate votes into seats, including candidate quality and strength in the. The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index (PVI) is a measurement tool that scores each congressional district based on how strongly it leans toward one political party. Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne survived 2020, despite Donald Trump carrying her Des Moines-based district. Redistricting has no bearing on Senate elections, and the 2022 Senate map appears favorable for Democrats. In addition, as mentioned earlier, the margin of error for the Senate model is relatively large, leaving room for a range of possible outcomes from a GOP gain of two-to-three seats to a Democratic gain of four-to-five seats. Lucca brings that KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As we approach Election Day, the basic fundamentals of this midterm may be reasserting themselves, to the benefit of Republicans. Joe Kent's margin of victory over Herrera Beutler in the primary. San Nicolas (D), the delegate representing Guam's At-Large Congressional District, retired to run for governor. November 1:AK-AL, AZ-04, KS-03, NH-01, PA-17 move from Toss-up to Leans D; CA-27, CO-08, NC-13, NV-03, NY-19, OR-05, VA-02 Toss-up to Leans R; CA-40 Safe to Likely R; CA-47, CT-05, NY-04, VA-7, WA-08 Leans D to Toss-up; CT-03 Likely to Safe D; NE-02 Likely to Leans R. The final 2022 House ratings from Elections Daily, a site that provides nonpartisan election coverage. The following map shows each state with a Republican battleground primary for U.S. House in 2022. With over 37% vote share, they won 74 of the 125 seats. UPDATED Nov. 7, 2022, at 1:58 PM Republicans are favored to win the House The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often.. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. 63Non-voting delegates 63.1American Samoa 63.2District of Columbia 63.3Guam 63.4Northern Mariana Islands 63.5United States Virgin Islands 64See also 65Notes 66References Toggle the table of contents 2022 United States House of Representatives elections 12 languages Deutsch Espaol Franais Suomi GOP Rep. Don Bacons race is one to watch. When candidates from only one of either the Democratic or Republican parties run for a U.S. House seat, the seat is all but guaranteed to be won by that party. The U.S. House incumbents listed in the table below announced their candidacy for the same congressional district for the 2022 U.S. House elections. This chart lists each district that the DCCC announced it would seek to defend via the Frontline program in 2022. In this article, I use generic ballot polls to construct a model for forecasting seat change in midterm elections. I use the estimates from these models to make conditional forecasts of the results of the 2022 House and Senate elections. Terms of service | Privacy Policy | Do not sell my info | Notice to California Residents, Design & development: Andrew Briz, Beatrice Jin, Arjun Kakkar, Andrew McGill, Allan James Vestal, Audience & strategy: Caroline Amenabar, Annie Bryan, Kam Burns, Isabel Dobrin, Annie Yu, Elana Zak. [40][41], On February 10, 2021, the NRCC released an initial list of 47 House Democrats whose districts it would target in the 2022 elections. The lions share of those districts that have seen spending are held by Democrats, indicating Dear Readers: Tomorrow (Friday, Sept. 23) from noon to 1:30 p.m., the Center for Politics will honor the service of U.S. Capitol Police Officers and D.C. Metropolitan Police Officers who defended the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 with the presentation of the Centers first annual Defender of Democracy awards. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- This article updates and applies the seats-in-trouble congressional election forecasting equations to the 2022 midterm elections. Heading into the 2022 elections, there were 68 open U.S. House seats. Nov. 8, 2022, In Washington State, Senator Patty Murray is facing a strong Republican challenge, though she remains favored to win. Gibbs' margin of victory over Meijer in the primary. We are just 600 short days away from the 2022 midterm elections, which means it is the perfect time to handicap the Republicans' chances to win back the House, Senate and prepare a serious. Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter and various media outlets across the country. A model using the generic ballot and seat exposure shows that a single digit lead on the generic ballot would give Democrats a good chance to keep control of the Senate. A smaller Democratic lead in the generic ballot, or a Republican lead, would predict a Republican edge in the House, and possibly also in the Senate. Current House. The 2023 Nigerian House of Representatives elections in Abia State will be held on 25 February 2023, to elect the 3 House of Representatives members from Abia State, one from each of the state's three senatorial districts. National House generic ballot polling can be a useful tool in projecting the overall results of House and Senate elections. Find out how all this works in our. Seven states (California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) lost seats.[62]. United States House of Representatives elections, 2022 Elections to the U.S. House were held on November 8, 2022. The table below lists changes made to election dates and deadlines in the 2022 election cycle. House 2022 Live Election Forecast Looking for the GA Senate Runoff Forecast? Less clear is what the race will do to his . if("undefined"==typeof window.datawrapper)window.datawrapper={};window.datawrapper["sOA7J"]={},window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].embedDeltas={"100":464,"200":443,"300":421,"400":421,"500":400,"700":400,"800":400,"900":400,"1000":400},window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].iframe=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-sOA7J"),window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].iframe.style.height=window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].embedDeltas[Math.min(1e3,Math.max(100*Math.floor(window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].iframe.offsetWidth/100),100))]+"px",window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if("undefined"!=typeof a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var b in a.data["datawrapper-height"])if("sOA7J"==b)window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].iframe.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][b]+"px"}); if(document.getElementsByClassName("reference").length==0) if(document.getElementById('Footnotes')!==null) document.getElementById('Footnotes').parentNode.style.display = 'none'; Communications: Alison Graves Carley Allensworth Abigail Campbell Sarah Groat Caitlin Vanden Boom These figures include the seat of Rep. Donald McEachin (D), who passed away on November 28, after winning re-election. Ballotpedia considers a seat to be open if the incumbent representative did not file to run for re-election or if they filed for re-election but withdrew before the primary. Gibbs unofficially withdrew from his primary after announcing his retirement on April 9, 2022. -- Abortion dominates Democratic messaging, while Republicans are much less likely to mention it. These results indicate that one should interpret the models predictions for Senate seat swing cautiously as relatively large errors are not uncommon. The final 2022 House ratings from Inside Elections. Candidates running for office in open or Democratic-held House seats are eligible for the Young Guns program. -- That said, there are also a lot of contradictory signs. Five were open because they were newly created districts where no incumbent filed to run. Note: Ballotpedia does not consider these seats to be open when calculating congressional competitiveness data. We work hard to make predictions that are both accurate and defensible. The size of the seat exposure effect is especially noteworthy considering that the number of Senate seats in play is only about one-twelfth of the number of House seats in play. Miles Coleman, along with our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley, will be hosting a Twitter Spaces at noon eastern on Thursday to discuss the looming midterm elections. Table 2 displays the results of regression analyses of House and Senate seat change in midterm elections between 1946 and 2018. Benjamin Kalu. Ellis' calculations included blank votes in this race. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible. In 2022, 52 districts were open because the incumbent did not run for re-election. CrowdwisdomLive Quebec Election 2022 Predictions: . The North Carolina State Board of Elections announced that candidate filing, having been suspended by the state supreme court in December 2021, would resume on February 24, 2022, and conclude on March 4, 2022. Welcome to 338Canada Quebec! Sablan ran as an independent from 2008 to 2020. The seat of the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico, whose functions are similar to the delegates, was not up for election this year. A few weeks ago, Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik wrote about the 1978 and 1982 midterms. We'll always be transparent about why we're making a certain rating. Ten districts were open because the incumbent lost in a primary. We can use the results from the regression equations in Table 2 to generate conditional forecasts of seat swing in the 2022 House and Senate elections. Governor Andy Beshear (D) signed HB172 into law, extending the filing deadline for partisan candidates from January 7, 2022, to January 25, 2022. Governor Charlie Baker (R) signed a bill into law that rescheduled the state's primary election from September 20, 2022, to September 6, 2022. Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) died on August 3, 2022. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable. Heading into the election, Democrats had a 220-212 majority. The charts below show primary competitiveness statistics for the U.S. House from 2014 to 2022. You can also view these ratingsas a table. The average seat loss has been almost 27 seats in the House and between three and four seats in the Senate. In 2018, Democrats won 15 of POLITICOs 22 Toss Up contests in their 40-seat wave election. 2022 Kentucky General Election: Live updates and the latest news from polls in Louisville Rae Johnson, Caleb Stultz, Ana Roco lvarez Brez and Stephanie Kuzydym, Louisville Courier Journal. All 435 districts were up for election. 50. From Wikimedia Commons, the free media repository. The Vanguard program exists to provide support to candidates running in Republican-leaning open seats. The House model is highly accurate, explaining over 80% of the variance in seat swing. Election Day arrived with 217 seats in the Solid, Likely or Lean Republican category putting Republicans only two seats away from the majority, according to the forecast. 2022 U.S. House Elections with multiple incumbents. A recent article by Seth Moskowitz in the Crystal Ball showed that polls on the generic ballot question, while not perfect, generally give a good indication of the national popular vote in recent U.S. House elections. Scholten defeated Gibbs in the general election. Two predictors largely explain the variation in seat swing in midterm elections: the generic ballot and the number of House and Senate seats defended by the presidents party. Dear Readers: Listeners to our Politics is Everything podcast are already familiar with Carah Ong Whaley, who joined the Center for Politics several months ago. In 2022, there were 67 incumbent members of congressseven U.S. senators and 60 members of the U.S. Housewho did not file to run for re-election, amounting to 14.3% of those members eligible to run for re-election. Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. Interns wanted: Get paid to help ensure that every voter has unbiased election information. In the Senate data, the point for 2002 is also well above the regression line while points for several other elections including 1962 and 1978 are also well above or below the line. Nine incumbents six Democrats and three Republicans were defeated. Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin's battleground seat got slightly easier in redistricting, but the GOP thinks it can oust her with a national tailwind. Battle for the House 2022. The average MOV of in the U.S. House was 28.9 percentage points, the second smallest margin since 2012, and up slightly from 28.8 percentage points in 2020. For 2022 to qualify historically as a wave election, Democrats must lose 48 U.S. House seats in 2022. What Election Day looks like based on polls alone, What Election Day looks like based on polls, fundraising, past voting patterns and more, What Election Day looks like when we add experts ratings to the Classic forecast. We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. Beyond this general tendency, however, the magnitude of these losses has varied considerably. Click here for our coverage of special elections to the 117th Congress. The incumbent party Coalition Avenir Quebec led by Franois Legault registered a massive win in the last election. Box 400806Charlottesville, VA 22904, 2020 By the Rector and Visitors of the University of Virginia. The party gained a net of nine districts. You can also view these ratings as a table. Full election results. Republicans will win the House of Representatives, CNN projects, in a victory that will fall short of their hopes of a "red wave" but thwart President Joe Biden's domestic agenda and will. The tendency of the presidents party to lose seats in Congress in midterm elections is one of the best-known regularities in American politics. On November 12, 2020, Jim Ellis of Ellis Insight identified a group of districts he called The 52% Club. Interns wanted: Get paid to help ensure that every voter has unbiased information... For General Assembly candidates I use the estimates from these models to predictions! 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Program in 2022, as well as some consensus projections been almost 27 seats in the House Senate! Chart lists each district that the DCCC announced it would seek to defend the... The primary competitiveness statistics for the Young Guns program in seat swing currently hold an extraordinarily narrow 220-211 majority. State with a Republican battleground primary for U.S. House elections a few weeks ago, Crystal Ball Managing Kyle. To inform our audience on events in the 2022 House and Senate elections or higher chance of.! Qualify historically as a table with four districts he called the 52 %.!